A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated debt ceiling negotiations. The development caused a flutter across equity markets, with most leading frontline global equity indices trading weak. Back home, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 lost over 1 per cent each in intra-day deals to hit a low of 65,751.53 and 19,517.55 levels, respectively.
Stocks of small- and mid-cap companies continued to gain ground in July, notwithstanding analysts sounding caution on these two market segments given the sharp run thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Sanjeev Prasad, co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, in a note co-authored with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa in June-end, had cautioned against the sharp run in small- and mid-caps. "We do not see any particular reason for the excitement in small- and mid-cap stocks.
The joint venture of Jio Financial Services and BlackRock to foray into India's asset management space could be disruptive but not disastrous for incumbent industry players, analysts said on Thursday. As an investment strategy, analysts suggest investors stay put in shares of those AMCs that consistently improve business metrics, and where market capitalisation-to-asset under management (AUM) valuation is not stretched. However, growth expectations of incumbent players may get trimmed in the medium-to-long term, analysts said, once the Jio-BlackRock JV unveils its plans, discounting the looming challenge as significant enough to dent their profitability.
The markets have given a thumbs down to Jubilant FoodWorks results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). The company, which owns and operates Domino's Pizza and Popeyes chain of stores, reported a (standalone) net profit of Rs 75.2 crore in Q1 of FY24 - a drop of 25.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 101 crore, but a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise from Rs 47.5 crore. What's worrying the Street is the likelihood of a dismal Q2FY24 performance, which it feels will be marred by soaring milk, cheese and vegetable prices.
ITC's move to demerge the hotel business into a new entity, ITC Hotels Ltd, is a step in the right direction and will allay investor's concerns on the company's capital allocation strategy in the medium-to-long term, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a note. According to the company, the board of directors has approved in principle the demerger of the hotels business, wherein ITC will hold a 40 per cent stake in the new entity, and the remaining 60 per cent will be held directly by shareholders. The scheme of arrangement shall be placed for approval of the Board at its next meeting to be convened on 14th August 2023.
The move to demerge the hotel business into a separate entity by ITC has brought back focus on hotel stocks, which have already seen a good run thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). Analysts believe there could be more gains in store over the next one year for the stocks in this sector, but suggest investors put in money on a correction only from a long-term perspective. Hotel stocks, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, have seen a good run as travel picked up post Covid in India. Not only have the room rents increased, the occupancy, too, has surged.
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
'We are in a sweet spot.' 'Equity, on a standalone basis, will continue to remain the asset class to stay invested in.'
HDFC Bank Q1FY24 results analysis: Shares of HDFC Bank, the world's seventh largest financial entity, have advanced 2 per cent in two days, as against 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after the lender reported its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on July 17. The S&P BSE Bankex index, meanwhile, has gained 1.3 per cent. While the near-term stock performance may remain sideways due to merger-related hiccups, analysts remain bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
It is pouring heavily not only in North India, but at Dalal Street too. However, the latter is seeing a flurry of initial public offers (IPOs). After a busy fortnight that ended on July 7 with seven IPOs - IdeaForge Technology, Cyient DLM, PKH Ventures, Pentagon Rubber, Global Pet Industries, Tridhya Tech, and Synoptics Technologies -- four more IPOs will hit the Street this week, including one mainboard IPO of Utkarsh Small Finance Bank. That apart, India's largest securities' depository National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for an IPO.
'North Indian cuisine dominates on Zomato.'
Automotive (auto) and auto ancillary stocks have been in the fast lane thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index surging nearly 27 per cent, outperforming the Nifty50, which has gained roughly 11 per cent during this period. The top-gear performance of auto stocks at the bourses, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, has been triggered by the premiumisation of products across vehicle manufacturers, which has seen vehicle sales remaining relatively stable. "It is not about higher sales figures now, but about premiumisation.
This will be the lender's first result after its merger with HDFC Ltd, effective from July 1, and will keep analysts glued to the management's earnings growth guidance for the merged financial behemoth.
'Markets are not expensive; they are fairly priced.'
After a sharp outperformance in the mid-and small-cap segments in the first half of calendar year 2023 (H1-CY23), analysts are now turning cautious on these two market segments and suggest investors stay selective and look for valuation comfort and earnings visibility before investing. The S&P BSE Midcap index has surged 13.7 per cent in H1-CY23, and the S&P BSE Small-cap index gained 12.7 per cent during this period, data shows. The S&P BSE Sensex, in comparison, has moved up 6.4 per cent.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
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